Forecaster Comparison
How does WetherVane stack up against the major election forecasters? Below is a side-by-side view of ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections for all 2026 Senate and Governor races. WetherVane's predictions are derived from a structural model of electoral communities — not from polls or pundit consensus.
Rating scale: Safe/Solid D → Likely D → Lean D → Toss-up/Tilt → Lean R → Likely R → Safe/Solid R. WetherVane thresholds: Toss-up ±3pp, Lean ±3–8pp, Likely ±8–15pp, Safe 15pp+. External forecasters use their own judgment-based criteria.External ratings as of 2026-03-29.
71 races
| Race | WetherVane | Cook | Sabato | Inside Elections |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSGovernor | Toss-up50.3% D · D+0.3 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| MISenate | Toss-up49.6% D · R+0.4 | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| NHGovernor | Toss-up49.3% D · R+0.7 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| GAGovernor | Toss-up50.8% D · D+0.8 | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| VTGovernor | Toss-up49.0% D · R+1.0 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| MIGovernor | Toss-up48.9% D · R+1.1 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| TXGovernor | Toss-up48.6% D · R+1.4 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| GASenate | Toss-up48.6% D · R+1.4 | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R |
| TXSenate | Toss-up48.5% D · R+1.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| OHSenate | Toss-up51.6% D · D+1.6 | Lean R | Lean R | Tilt R |
| FLSenate | Toss-up52.2% D · D+2.2 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| NHSenate | Toss-up52.7% D · D+2.7 | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| FLGovernor | Toss-up52.8% D · D+2.8 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| MESenate | Lean D53.2% D · D+3.2 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D |
| NVGovernor | Lean D53.4% D · D+3.4 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| NMGovernor | Lean D53.6% D · D+3.6 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| WIGovernor | Lean D53.8% D · D+3.8 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| NCSenate | Lean D54.3% D · D+4.3 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| AKSenate | Lean D55.0% D · D+5.0 | Likely R | Likely R | Likely R |
| SCSenate | Lean R44.9% D · R+5.1 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| ORGovernor | Lean D55.2% D · D+5.2 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| PAGovernor | Lean D55.5% D · D+5.5 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| VASenate | Lean D55.7% D · D+5.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| SCGovernor | Lean R44.3% D · R+5.7 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| NMSenate | Lean D55.8% D · D+5.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| KSSenate | Lean R43.8% D · R+6.2 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| RIGovernor | Lean D56.3% D · D+6.3 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| IASenate | Lean R43.5% D · R+6.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| NJSenate | Lean D56.7% D · D+6.7 | Lean D | Lean D | Tilt D |
| MNGovernor | Lean D57.0% D · D+7.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Lean D |
| IAGovernor | Lean R42.9% D · R+7.1 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| MEGovernor | Lean D57.2% D · D+7.2 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| MNSenate | Lean D57.4% D · D+7.4 | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| ILSenate | Lean D57.4% D · D+7.4 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| CAGovernor | Likely D58.2% D · D+8.2 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| MTSenate | Likely R41.8% D · R+8.2 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| OHGovernor | Likely D58.2% D · D+8.2 | Lean R | Lean R | Lean R |
| NESenate | Likely R41.7% D · R+8.3 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| AZGovernor | Likely D58.3% D · D+8.3 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| COSenate | Likely D58.5% D · D+8.5 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| ORSenate | Likely D58.7% D · D+8.7 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| ILGovernor | Likely D59.1% D · D+9.1 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| LASenate | Likely R40.7% D · R+9.3 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| MSSenate | Likely R40.7% D · R+9.3 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| RISenate | Likely D59.5% D · D+9.5 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| CTGovernor | Likely D59.5% D · D+9.5 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| DESenate | Likely D59.7% D · D+9.7 | Toss-up | Lean D | Tilt D |
| AKGovernor | Likely R39.4% D · R+10.6 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| COGovernor | Likely D61.0% D · D+11.0 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| TNSenate | Likely R38.5% D · R+11.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| TNGovernor | Likely R37.9% D · R+12.1 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| ALSenate | Likely R37.6% D · R+12.4 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| KYSenate | Likely R37.5% D · R+12.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| OKGovernor | Likely R36.7% D · R+13.3 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| ARGovernor | Likely R36.3% D · R+13.7 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| ARSenate | Likely R35.9% D · R+14.1 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| SDGovernor | Likely R35.4% D · R+14.6 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| OKSenate | Likely R35.1% D · R+14.9 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| IDSenate | Likely R35.0% D · R+15.0 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| MASenate | Safe D65.3% D · D+15.3 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| SDSenate | Safe R34.6% D · R+15.4 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| NYGovernor | Safe D65.8% D · D+15.8 | Likely D | Likely D | Likely D |
| MAGovernor | Safe D66.2% D · D+16.2 | Toss-up | Toss-up | Toss-up |
| HIGovernor | Safe D66.6% D · D+16.6 | Solid D | Safe D | Solid D |
| MDGovernor | Safe D66.7% D · D+16.7 | Lean D | Lean D | Lean D |
| IDGovernor | Safe R32.0% D · R+18.0 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| NEGovernor | Safe R31.2% D · R+18.8 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| WVSenate | Safe R31.0% D · R+19.0 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| WYSenate | Safe R28.8% D · R+21.2 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| ALGovernor | Safe R25.5% D · R+24.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |
| WYGovernor | Safe R14.5% D · R+35.5 | Solid R | Safe R | Solid R |