Open Seat — Smith retiring
Rating: Lean D
Recent Polls(3 polls)Medium
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+4.0 | 1,000 |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+4.0 | 1,000 |
| Jul 11, 2025 | Impact Research (D) | B/C | D+2.1 | 604 |
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Tina Smith (D) D+5.3
- 2024 presidential (MN)
- Harris (D) D+3.0
- Model vs. last result
- D+13.2 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 87 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 3 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Jul 10, 2025