Pollster Accuracy
Ranked accuracy for political pollsters based on 2022 general election backtesting. Each pollster is measured against actual results using root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean signed error — both in percentage points of two-party vote share. Rank 1 is the most accurate. 50 pollsters evaluated.
How accuracy is measured: RMSE (root mean squared error) penalizes large misses more heavily — lower is better. Mean bias shows systematic lean: positive values mean the pollster over-predicted Democratic share; negative means over-predicting Republican share.
50 pollsters — click any column header to sort
| Rank ↑ | Pollster | Polls | Races | RMSE (pp) | Mean Bias (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriot Polling | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | +0.40pp D-lean |
| 2 | East Carolina University Center for Survey Research | 4 | 2 | 0.42 | ≈0 |
| 3 | Frederick Polls | 1 | 1 | 0.49 | -0.49pp R-lean |
| 4 | Wick | 2 | 2 | 0.75 | -0.72pp R-lean |
| 5 | Emerson College | 5 | 2 | 0.84 | +0.76pp D-lean |
| 6 | Phillips Academy | 1 | 1 | 0.91 | -0.91pp R-lean |
| 7 | University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs | 6 | 2 | 1.09 | -0.47pp R-lean |
| 8 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 1 | 1 | 1.12 | +1.12pp D-lean |
| 9 | Landmark Communications | 5 | 2 | 1.12 | +0.41pp D-lean |
| 10 | Seven Letter Insight | 1 | 1 | 1.16 | +1.16pp D-lean |
| 11 | New York Times/Siena College | 2 | 2 | 1.19 | +1.19pp D-lean |
| 12 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 4 | 2 | 1.23 | +0.79pp D-lean |
| 13 | Trafalgar Group | 7 | 2 | 1.25 | -0.49pp R-lean |
| 14 | Marist College | 4 | 2 | 1.50 | +1.33pp D-lean |
| 15 | SSRS | 1 | 1 | 1.51 | +1.51pp D-lean |
| 16 | Fabrizio/Impact Research | 1 | 1 | 1.55 | +1.55pp D-lean |
| 17 | Echelon Insights | 2 | 2 | 1.85 | -1.27pp R-lean |
| 18 | University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion | 1 | 1 | 2.09 | +2.09pp D-lean |
| 19 | Mitchell Research & Communications | 1 | 1 | 2.14 | +2.14pp D-lean |
| 20 | Data for Progress | 11 | 4 | 2.17 | +0.95pp D-lean |
| 21 | AtlasIntel | 1 | 1 | 2.18 | -2.18pp R-lean |
| 22 | Research Co. | 4 | 4 | 2.21 | +1.50pp D-lean |
| 23 | Patinkin Research Strategies | 3 | 2 | 2.23 | +2.18pp D-lean |
| 24 | co/efficient | 1 | 1 | 2.37 | -2.37pp R-lean |
| 25 | InsiderAdvantage | 11 | 4 | 2.39 | +1.05pp D-lean |
| 26 | Amber Integrated | 4 | 4 | 2.53 | +0.85pp D-lean |
| 27 | Rasmussen Reports | 2 | 2 | 2.55 | -2.41pp R-lean |
| 28 | Targoz Market Research | 2 | 2 | 2.57 | -2.41pp R-lean |
| 29 | Moore Information Group | 3 | 1 | 2.60 | -2.51pp R-lean |
| 30 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2 | 2 | 2.74 | +2.74pp D-lean |
| 31 | Quinnipiac University | 4 | 2 | 2.98 | +2.97pp D-lean |
| 32 | Remington Research Group | 2 | 2 | 3.06 | -3.03pp R-lean |
| 33 | SurveyUSA | 5 | 2 | 3.36 | +2.63pp D-lean |
| 34 | YouGov | 5 | 4 | 3.77 | +3.16pp D-lean |
| 35 | ActiVote | 1 | 1 | 4.15 | +4.15pp D-lean |
| 36 | Cherry Communications | 1 | 1 | 4.36 | +4.36pp D-lean |
| 37 | Siena College | 4 | 2 | 4.56 | +4.50pp D-lean |
| 38 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2 | 2 | 4.57 | +4.56pp D-lean |
| 39 | Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative | 2 | 2 | 4.58 | +4.54pp D-lean |
| 40 | Civiqs | 6 | 4 | 5.02 | +4.41pp D-lean |
| 41 | Victory Insights | 2 | 2 | 5.03 | +4.85pp D-lean |
| 42 | RMG Research | 2 | 2 | 5.26 | +5.25pp D-lean |
| 43 | Center Street PAC | 4 | 4 | 5.40 | +4.68pp D-lean |
| 44 | Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2 | 2 | 5.42 | +5.38pp D-lean |
| 45 | Suffolk University | 2 | 2 | 6.15 | +6.15pp D-lean |
| 46 | Sachs Media | 3 | 2 | 6.26 | +6.19pp D-lean |
| 47 | African American Research Collaborative | 2 | 2 | 7.17 | +7.17pp D-lean |
| 48 | Clarity Campaign Labs | 2 | 2 | 8.98 | +8.95pp D-lean |
| 49 | Cygnal | 2 | 2 | 10.73 | +8.00pp D-lean |
| 50 | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 4 | 2 | 11.13 | +10.84pp D-lean |