Forecast Changelog

How our forecasts have changed over time. Each entry shows races where the predicted Democratic two-party vote share shifted meaningfully after new polls or model updates.

Friday, April 24, 2026

auto-update (successor to PR #166; closes stale snapshot)

18 races updated

26.2%→25.9%-0.3pp

38.4%→38.0%-0.4pp

48.4%→48.0%-0.4pp

53.4%→53.8%+0.3pp

46.0%→46.3%+0.3pp

54.3%→55.1%+0.8pp

53.6%→54.4%+0.8pp

53.0%→53.4%+0.4pp

55.5%→56.2%+0.7pp

54.3%→55.7%+1.4pp

50.3%→49.8%-0.5pp

54.4%→53.9%-0.5pp

46.6%→46.8%+0.2pp

59.5%→59.1%-0.4pp

58.1%→58.5%+0.4pp

48.6%→51.4%+2.7pp

49.1%→49.7%+0.6pp

52.6%→52.0%-0.6pp

Sunday, April 19, 2026

Weekly poll scrape

20 races updated

38.8%→26.2%-12.6pp

38.7%→38.4%-0.3pp

50.7%→47.0%-3.6pp

50.0%→48.4%-1.6pp

52.6%→53.4%+0.8pp

50.7%→46.0%-4.7pp

52.3%→54.3%+2.0pp

49.0%→53.6%+4.6pp

49.9%→53.0%+3.0pp

61.0%→55.5%-5.5pp

59.1%→54.3%-4.8pp

58.8%→54.1%-4.7pp

48.3%→50.3%+2.1pp

53.0%→54.4%+1.4pp

53.3%→46.6%-6.7pp

50.5%→59.5%+9.0pp

63.1%→58.1%-5.0pp

52.3%→48.6%-3.7pp

54.0%→49.1%-4.9pp

53.7%→52.6%-1.1pp

Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Weekly poll scrape

9 races updated

53.0%→51.5%-1.6pp

53.0%→52.6%-0.4pp

50.4%→49.0%-1.3pp

50.3%→49.9%-0.4pp

59.5%→59.1%-0.4pp

54.9%→53.3%-1.5pp

51.3%→50.5%-0.9pp

52.9%→52.3%-0.6pp

54.2%→54.0%-0.2pp

Sunday, April 5, 2026

Weekly poll scrape

20 races updated

47.0%→38.7%-8.3pp

47.0%→38.7%-8.3pp

53.5%→50.7%-2.8pp

53.1%→50.0%-3.1pp

58.4%→53.0%-5.4pp

58.4%→53.0%-5.4pp

53.9%→50.9%-3.0pp

51.0%→50.4%-0.7pp

51.0%→50.3%-0.7pp

55.0%→61.0%+6.0pp

55.0%→59.5%+4.5pp

61.8%→58.7%-3.1pp

57.4%→48.3%-9.1pp

57.4%→53.1%-4.3pp

52.4%→54.9%+2.4pp

53.0%→51.3%-1.6pp

57.0%→63.1%+6.2pp

55.5%→52.9%-2.5pp

55.5%→54.2%-1.2pp

52.7%→53.8%+1.1pp

Friday, April 3, 2026

Mid-week poll scrape (+6 polls)

21 races updated

30.6%→47.0%+16.4pp

34.8%→47.0%+12.2pp

45.8%→53.5%+7.7pp

45.1%→53.1%+7.9pp

47.4%→58.4%+11.0pp

60.4%→58.4%-2.0pp

42.7%→53.9%+11.1pp

50.7%→52.3%+1.6pp

49.5%→51.0%+1.5pp

49.5%→51.0%+1.5pp

50.5%→55.0%+4.5pp

50.5%→55.0%+4.5pp

47.1%→61.8%+14.7pp

50.9%→57.4%+6.5pp

50.9%→57.4%+6.5pp

43.8%→52.4%+8.7pp

54.9%→53.0%-2.0pp

47.9%→57.0%+9.1pp

42.0%→55.5%+13.5pp

42.0%→55.5%+13.5pp

48.3%→52.7%+4.4pp

Sunday, March 29, 2026

Initial snapshot — type correlation endpoint deployed

21 races updated

newR+19.4

newR+15.2

newR+4.2

newR+4.9

newR+2.6

newD+10.4

newR+7.3

newD+0.7

newR+0.5

newR+0.5

newD+0.5

newD+0.5

newR+2.9

newD+0.9

newD+0.9

newR+6.2

newD+4.9

newR+2.1

newR+8.0

newR+8.0

newR+1.7

Snapshots are recorded after each weekly poll scrape (Sundays). Only races with poll-adjusted predictions are tracked. Changes under 0.2 percentage points are filtered out. View our methodology for details on how predictions are computed.