SenateGovernorCompetitive

Recent Polls(4 polls)Medium

DatePollsterGradeMarginSample
Mar 23, 2026TIPP InsightsAR+1.81,175
Mar 19, 2026TIPP Insights (R)AD+1.21,175
Oct 8, 2025Impact Research (D)B/CD+3.2500
Sep 30, 2025Platform CommunicationsR+1.8500

Historical Context

2022 result
Tony Evers (D) D+3.4
2024 presidential (WI)
Trump (R) R+0.9
Model vs. last result
D+4.6 shift vs. last result

About this forecast

  • Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 72 counties.
  • Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
  • 4 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.

Last updated: Sep 29, 2025