Incumbent: Jeff Merkley (D)
Rating: Safe D
Candidates: Jeff Merkley (D)
Recent PollsLow
This forecast is based on the structural model prior — no race-specific polls have been incorporated yet.
No polls available yet for this race.
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Jeff Merkley (D) D+18.7
- 2024 presidential (OR)
- Harris (D) D+10.8
- Model vs. last result
- R+1.3 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 36 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
No polls yet — forecast reflects structural model prior only.