Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)
Rating: Toss-up
Candidates: Susan Collins (R) vs Janet Mills, David Costello, Graham Platner (D)
Recent Polls(25 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Echelon Insights | A- | D+3.1 | 378 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | A- | D+3.1 | 378 |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Maine People's Resource Center | B/C | D+5.2 | 1,167 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | MPRC | — | D+5.2 | 1,167 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Maine People's Resource Center (D) | B/C | D+5.2 | 1,167 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+3.9 | 1,075 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+3.9 | 1,075 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | OnMessage | A | D+1.2 | 600 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+3.9 | 800 |
| Mar 8, 2026 | OnMessage Public Strategies (R) | B/C | D+1.2 | 600 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+3.9 | 800 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | Pan Atlantic Research | A/B | D+2.4 | 810 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Pan Atlantic Research | A/B | D+2.4 | 810 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Pan Atlantic | A/B | D+2.4 | 810 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Univ. of New Hampshire | B- | D+6.3 | 1,120 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | UNH | — | D+0.6 | 1,120 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | B- | D+6.3 | 1,105 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Fabrizio Lee & Associates | A/B | R+0.6 | 800 |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Workbench Strategy (D) | — | EVEN | 900 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Pan Atlantic Research | A/B | D+0.6 | 820 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Pan Atlantic Research | A/B | D+0.6 | 820 |
| Nov 12, 2025 | Maine People's Resource Center | B/C | D+2.3 | 783 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Cygnal | A | D+4.4 | 600 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Maine People's Resource Center | B/C | D+2.3 | 783 |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Zenith Research (D) | — | EVEN | 501 |
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Susan Collins (R) R+8.6
- 2024 presidential (ME)
- Harris (D) D+5.9
- Model vs. last result
- D+13.0 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 16 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 25 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Oct 9, 2025