Open Seat — Ernst retiring
Rating: Toss-up
Candidates: Ashley Hinson (R) vs Zach Wahls, Josh Turek, Nathan Sage (D)
Recent Polls(3 polls)Medium
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | A- | D+0.6 | 377 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | GQR (D) | — | R+2.2 | 1,200 |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Change Research (D) | C+ | R+1.8 | 1,108 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result
- Chuck Grassley (R) R+26.5
- 2024 presidential (IA)
- Trump (R) R+18.3
- Model vs. last result
- D+13.1 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 99 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 3 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Jan 10, 2026