Incumbent: John Cornyn (R)
Rating: Lean R
Candidates: John Cornyn, Ken Paxton (primary) (R)
Recent Polls(3 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | University of Texas | B/C | D+5.3 | 1,200 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | University of Houston | B/C | R+1.1 | 1,502 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Emerson College | A | EVEN | 1,165 |
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 248 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 3 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Jan 11, 2026