Incumbent: Jon Ossoff (D)
Rating: Toss-up
Candidates: Jon Ossoff (D) vs Earl Carter, Mike Collins, Derek Dooley, John Coyne III, Jonathan McColumn (R)
Recent Polls(17 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Echelon Insights | A- | D+3.7 | 407 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | A- | D+4.7 | 407 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+4.4 | 1,000 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+2.7 | 1,000 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Quantus Insights | — | D+4.5 | 624 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Quantus Insights | — | EVEN | 624 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | TIPP Insights | A | D+0.6 | 2,956 |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Cygnal | A | D+3.9 | 610 |
| May 22, 2025 | Cygnal | A | D+1.7 | 800 |
| May 17, 2025 | Cygnal | A | D+1.7 | 800 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Trafalgar Group | B | D+2.7 | 1,426 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Atlanta Journal-Constitution | — | D+5.2 | 1,000 |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Cygnal | A | EVEN | 600 |
| Feb 13, 2025 | Quantus Insights | — | R+1.6 | 800 |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Tyson Group | B/C | D+4.7 | 600 |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Tyson Group | B/C | D+4.7 | 600 |
| Jan 15, 2025 | WPA Intelligence | B/C | D+8.4 | 500 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result (2022 runoff)
- Raphael Warnock (D) D+2.8
- 2024 presidential (GA)
- Trump (R) R+11.7
- Model vs. last result
- R+12.5 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 159 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 17 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Jan 14, 2025