Recent Polls(21 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2026 | Echelon Insights | A- | R+2.7 | 413 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Bowling Green Univ. | — | R+0.5 | 1,000 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | YouGov | B | R+0.5 | 1,000 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | — | R+0.5 | 1,000 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | A- | R+2.7 | 413 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+0.6 | 809 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+0.6 | 809 |
| Mar 10, 2026 | EMC Research | B/C | D+5.2 | 1,343 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | EMC Research (D) | B/C | D+5.2 | 1,343 |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Emerson College | A | D+0.6 | 850 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Emerson College | A | D+0.6 | 850 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Data Targeting (R) | B/C | R+1.1 | 603 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Bowling Green Univ. | — | R+1.6 | 800 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | YouGov | B | R+1.6 | 800 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | — | R+1.6 | 800 |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Hart Research (D) | — | D+0.6 | 800 |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Emerson College | A | R+5.7 | 1,000 |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Emerson College | A | R+5.7 | 1,000 |
| Jul 28, 2025 | Impact Research (D) | B/C | R+0.5 | 800 |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Bowling Green Univ. | — | R+2.6 | 800 |
| Apr 24, 2025 | Bowling Green State University/YouGov | — | R+2.6 | 800 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result
- Mike DeWine (R) R+25.5
- 2024 presidential (OH)
- Trump (R) R+17.0
- Model vs. last result
- D+42.0 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 88 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 21 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Apr 23, 2025