Open Seat — Peters retiring
Rating: Toss-up
Candidates: Haley Stevens, Mallory McMorrow, Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
Recent Polls(10 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+2.8 | 1,000 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Glengariff Group | A/B | D+2.8 | 600 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Mitchell Research & Communications | C | R+1.2 | 616 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | EPIC-MRA | B+ | D+1.2 | 600 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Rosetta Stone Communications (R) | B/C | R+4.0 | 637 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | Normington Petts (D) | B/C | D+1.1 | 700 |
| May 8, 2025 | Glengariff Group | A/B | D+0.6 | 600 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Mitchell Research | B | D+0.6 | 688 |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Target Insyght | B/C | R+3.9 | 600 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | EPIC-MRA | B+ | R+3.4 | 600 |
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Gary Peters (D) D+1.9
- 2024 presidential (MI)
- Trump (R) R+1.4
- Model vs. last result
- R+3.0 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 83 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 10 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Feb 7, 2025