Recent Polls(15 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | University of Texas | B/C | R+3.7 | 1,200 |
| Apr 28, 2026 | Texas Public Opinion Research | A/B | R+2.8 | 1,865 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | University of Texas | B/C | R+3.7 | 1,200 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Slingshot Strategies (D) | B/C | R+2.8 | 1,018 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | B/C | R+3.7 | 1,200 |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Univ. of Texas - Tyler | B/C | R+4.4 | 959 |
| Feb 22, 2026 | UT Tyler | — | R+4.4 | 1,117 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | University of Texas/Texas Politics Project | B/C | R+6.3 | 1,300 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Univ. of Houston | B/C | R+3.9 | 1,502 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | GBAO (D) | B/C | R+1.7 | 1,000 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | University of Houston | B/C | R+3.9 | 1,502 |
| Jan 31, 2026 | University of Houston/YouGov | B/C | R+3.9 | 1,502 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | Emerson College | A | R+4.4 | 1,165 |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Emerson College | A | R+4.4 | 1,165 |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Texas Public Opinion Research | A/B | R+3.3 | 843 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result
- Greg Abbott (R) R+11.3
- 2024 presidential (TX)
- Trump (R) R+14.1
- Model vs. last result
- D+4.0 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 248 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 15 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Aug 28, 2025