Recent Polls(8 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Susquehanna | — | D+11.7 | 700 |
| Mar 5, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall | A/B | D+13.2 | 834 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall | A/B | D+13.2 | 834 |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Franklin & Marshall College | A/B | D+13.2 | 834 |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | D+9.8 | 836 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | D+9.8 | 836 |
| Oct 1, 2025 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | D+9.0 | 1,579 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Quinnipiac University | B+ | D+8.5 | 1,579 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result
- Josh Shapiro (D) D+14.8
- 2024 presidential (PA)
- Trump (R) R+2.1
- Model vs. last result
- R+5.8 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 67 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 8 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Sep 28, 2025