Open Seat — Shaheen retiring
Rating: Competitive
Candidates: Chris Pappas, Karishma Manzur, Jared Sullivan (D)
Recent Polls(26 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Univ. of New Hampshire | B- | D+3.9 | 1,129 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | B- | D+7.8 | 1,295 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | UNH | — | D+3.9 | 1,129 |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+0.6 | 1,100 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | A/B | D+1.7 | 1,491 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Emerson College | A | D+0.6 | 1,100 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | St. Anselm | A/B | D+1.7 | 1,491 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Saint Anselm College | A/B | D+5.3 | 1,491 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | yes. every kid. | — | D+2.3 | 563 |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Univ. of New Hampshire | B- | D+2.6 | 2,053 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UNH | — | D+2.6 | 2,053 |
| Jan 19, 2026 | University of New Hampshire | B- | D+5.3 | 2,053 |
| Jan 4, 2026 | NH Journal | — | D+3.9 | 603 |
| Dec 28, 2025 | NHJournal/Praecones Analytica | B/C | D+12.2 | 603 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Univ. of New Hampshire | B- | D+1.8 | 2,212 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Saint Anselm College | A/B | D+5.0 | 2,212 |
| Oct 15, 2025 | co/efficient | B | D+1.7 | 1,034 |
| Oct 13, 2025 | co/efficient (R) | B | D+5.7 | 1,034 |
| Sep 29, 2025 | Univ. of New Hampshire | B- | D+3.3 | 1,235 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | University of New Hampshire | B- | D+8.4 | 1,235 |
| Sep 15, 2025 | co/efficient | B | D+1.7 | 904 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | co/efficient (R) | B | D+5.6 | 904 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Saint Anselm College | A/B | D+6.5 | 1,776 |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Saint Anselm College | A/B | D+6.5 | 1,776 |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Quantus Insights | — | R+4.6 | 650 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Praecones Analytica | B/C | R+4.0 | 626 |
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Jeanne Shaheen (D) D+15.9
- 2024 presidential (NH)
- Harris (D) D+2.8
- Model vs. last result
- R+9.8 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 10 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 26 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Feb 28, 2025