Open Seat — Rubio became Secretary of State
Rating: Competitive
Recent Polls(12 polls)Medium
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Stetson University | B/C | R+7.3 | 848 |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Echelon Insights | A- | R+3.8 | 406 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Edge / MDW Communications | — | R+0.6 | 1,834 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Stetson University | B/C | R+7.3 | 848 |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Echelon Insights (R) | A- | R+3.8 | 406 |
| Apr 3, 2026 | MDW (D) | — | R+0.6 | 1,834 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Emerson College | A | R+6.6 | 1,125 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Emerson College | A | R+6.6 | 1,125 |
| Mar 4, 2026 | University of North Florida | A/B | R+4.8 | 786 |
| Mar 2, 2026 | University of North Florida | A/B | R+4.8 | 786 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | University of North Florida | A/B | R+6.3 | 728 |
| Oct 3, 2025 | Tyson Group | B/C | R+4.3 | 800 |
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 67 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 12 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Oct 2, 2025