Recent Polls(23 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Michigan State Univ. | A/B | D+6.6 | 1,000 |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Impact Research (D) | B/C | D+2.6 | 800 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Michigan State University/YouGov | A/B | D+8.7 | 1,000 |
| Feb 16, 2026 | Impact Research (D) | B/C | D+2.0 | 800 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Glengariff Group | A/B | R+1.5 | 600 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Detroit News | — | R+1.5 | 600 |
| Jan 6, 2026 | Glengariff Group | A/B | R+1.5 | 600 |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Mitchell Research | B | R+4.4 | 616 |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Mitchell Research | B | R+4.4 | 616 |
| Nov 14, 2025 | EPIC-MRA | B+ | R+0.7 | 600 |
| Nov 11, 2025 | EPIC-MRA | B+ | R+0.7 | 600 |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Rosetta Stone | B/C | R+3.4 | 637 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Rosetta Stone | B/C | R+3.4 | 252 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Rosetta Stone Communications (R) | B/C | R+3.4 | 637 |
| May 28, 2025 | Glengariff Group | A/B | D+0.7 | 600 |
| Mar 18, 2025 | Mitchell Research | B | D+2.1 | 688 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Mitchell Research | B | D+2.1 | 688 |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Target Insyght | B/C | D+8.3 | 600 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Target Insyght | B/C | D+8.3 | 600 |
| Feb 8, 2025 | EPIC-MRA | B+ | EVEN | 600 |
| — | Schoen Cooperman Research (D) | B/C | D+0.8 | 600 |
| — | Glengariff Group | A/B | D+0.7 | 600 |
| — | Plymouth Union Public (R) | — | R+3.0 | 600 |
Historical Context
- 2022 result
- Gretchen Whitmer (D) D+10.5
- 2024 presidential (MI)
- Trump (R) R+1.4
- Model vs. last result
- R+12.4 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 83 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 23 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Feb 7, 2025