Open Seat — Tillis retiring
Rating: Toss-up
Candidates: Michael Whatley (R) vs Roy Cooper (D)
Recent Polls(25 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Opinion Diagnostics | — | D+4.9 | 830 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Opinion Diagnostics (R) | — | D+4.9 | 830 |
| Apr 17, 2026 | High Point Univ. | B/C | D+4.4 | 703 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | High Point/YouGov | B/C | D+4.4 | 703 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | High Point University/YouGov | B/C | D+4.4 | 703 |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+2.7 | 987 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | D+2.7 | 987 |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Catawba College | — | D+8.5 | 871 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Nexus/Strategic Partners Solutions | — | D+11.0 | 800 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Carolina Journal/Harper | — | D+4.4 | 600 |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Catawba College/YouGov | — | D+8.5 | 1,000 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Public Policy Polling | B+ | D+1.6 | 556 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | Nexus Strategies/ Strategic Partners Solutions | — | D+11.0 | 800 |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Change Research | C+ | D+5.6 | 1,069 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Change Research | C+ | D+5.6 | 1,069 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Change Research (D) | C+ | D+5.6 | 1,069 |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TIPP Insights (R) | A | D+16.7 | 1,512 |
| Jan 7, 2026 | Change Research (D) | C+ | D+2.8 | 1,105 |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Change Research (D) | C+ | D+3.9 | 855 |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Emerson College | A | D+3.4 | 1,000 |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Victory Insights | B/C | D+1.8 | 600 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Emerson College | A | D+3.4 | 1,000 |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Victory Insights | B/C | D+1.8 | 600 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Change Research (D) | C+ | D+1.1 | 867 |
| Nov 29, 2024 | Victory Insights | B/C | D+0.6 | 800 |
Historical Context
- 2020 result
- Thom Tillis (R) R+1.7
- 2024 presidential (NC)
- Trump (R) R+14.4
- Model vs. last result
- D+10.3 shift vs. last result
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 100 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 25 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Nov 28, 2024