SenateGovernorCompetitive

Recent Polls(3 polls)Medium

DatePollsterGradeMarginSample
Apr 30, 2026Siena CollegeAD+9.8806
Mar 26, 2026Siena CollegeAD+8.0804
Feb 19, 2026Marist CollegeA-D+10.21,442

About this forecast

  • Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 62 counties.
  • Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
  • 3 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.

Last updated: Feb 18, 2026