Open Seat — Vance became Vice President
Rating: Competitive
Recent Polls(4 polls)High
| Date | Pollster | Grade | Margin | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2026 | YouGov | B | R+1.6 | 1,000 |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Quantus Insights | — | R+1.1 | 784 |
| Dec 8, 2025 | Emerson College | A | R+1.6 | 850 |
| Oct 14, 2025 | YouGov | B | D+0.5 | 800 |
About this forecast
- Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 88 counties.
- Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
- 4 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.
Last updated: Oct 13, 2025