SenateGovernorCompetitive

Incumbent: Ed Markey (D)

Rating: Safe D

Candidates: Ed Markey (D)

Recent Polls(2 polls)Medium

DatePollsterGradeMarginSample
Feb 16, 2026UNHD+17.5620
Nov 23, 2025Boston Globe/SuffolkD+13.5500

About this forecast

  • Structural forecast based on electoral type modeling across 14 counties.
  • Types are discovered from historical shift patterns — not from polls or demographics alone.
  • 2 race-specific polls have been incorporated via Bayesian update through the type covariance structure.

Last updated: Nov 22, 2025