About WetherVane
A structural model of US electoral behavior.
WetherVane discovers communities of voters who move together politically, estimates how those communities covary, and propagates polling signals across geography to produce county-level forecasts.
Unlike poll aggregators, WetherVane starts from the underlying structure — types discovered from 16 years of electoral shift patterns across 3,154 US counties. A poll in Florida updates predictions in Georgia, because both states contain counties that share type memberships.
Read the full methodology →
KMeans discovery, soft membership, covariance estimation, poll propagation, and model performance details
Targeting 2026 midterms. Currently tracking 33 Senate races.
Built by Hayden Haines. Inspired by The Economist's 2020 presidential model.